1.3. A Global Bankrupt Disguised as a "Financial Leader"
U.S. government bonds represent an economic bubble with characteristics of a financial pyramid, which will inevitably collapse burst for the following reasons:
1. The Enormous U.S. National Debt: A Sign of Potential Bankruptcy.
The U.S. national debt has surpassed $35 trillion and continues to grow. The U.S. relies on a refinancing strategy, meaning it borrows new funds to pay interest on existing debt, without reducing the principal. Instead, the total debt keeps expanding.
This mirrors a Ponzi-like scheme, where the system's survival depends on attracting new investments to service old obligations. The debt becomes problematic when its servicing costs exceed the government's ability to generate revenue through taxation and economic growth. Given the rapid pace of debt accumulation and the constant need to raise the debt ceiling, the risk of a future U.S. default is steadily increasing.
2. The Threat of the U.S. Dollar Losing Its Status as the Global Reserve Currency.
Since 1944, following the Bretton Woods Conference, the U.S. dollar has held the position of the world’s primary reserve currency. However, history shows that reserve currencies have a limited lifespan. In previous centuries, other currencies held this role:
The Dutch guilder (17th-18th centuries)
The French franc (early 19th century)
The British pound sterling (late 19th - early 20th century)
Historically, global reserve currencies change approximately every 100 years, as the dominant economies decline, taking their currencies' credibility with them. Today, the U.S. dollar faces multiple challenges that threaten its status:
Rising national debt
Excessive money supply expansion
Geopolitical tensions
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, when the U.S. united the dollar from gold, its value has been based on public trust in the U.S. economy which was increasingly built on deception and manipulation. With no tangible backing, the dollar has effectively become a paper asset subject to unlimited issuance.
3. Risk of Hyperinflation.
Investors holding U.S. government bonds face serious losses due to inflation. Since U.S. debt is denominated in dollars, the only way for the U.S. to repay its obligations is by printing more money.
An increase in the money supply declines the dollar’s purchasing power and fuels inflation. For countries that hold a significant portion of their reserves in U.S. bonds, this could mean a devaluation of their assets. As the dollar weakens and inflation rises, the real returns on these bonds decline, making them a far less attractive investment.
4. The Rise of the Cryptocurrency Industry
Cryptocurrencies can operate independently of government institutions and national borders, making them truly global assets. Built on decentralized networks, they facilitate direct transactions between users without relying on centralized intermediaries such as banks or financial institutions.
Due to their technological advantages, cryptocurrencies have emerged as an alternative store of value and medium of exchange, challenging the traditional dominance of the U.S. dollar. As this trend gains, demand for dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. government bonds, will continue to decline.
U.S. government bonds can be considered one of the largest financial pyramids in modern history.
They are supported only by confidence in the U.S. economy, due to the Federal Reserve’s actions, the ever-growing national debt, and persistent inflation, that confidence is steadily declining.
The U.S. economy can be compared to the phrase "tall poppy syndrome": the higher the flower grows, the more likely it is to be cut down. It is difficult to consider an investment reliable when it is based on the endless issuance of paper dollars, which are constantly losing value due to inflation.
If central banks allocated their reserves into a deflationary crypto asset, their global standing would be significantly stronger and more stable. Countries that realize this shift ahead of others will gain a substantial competitive advantage, strengthen their financial positions, and protect their reserves from the risk of devaluation. This would be a crucial step toward economic independence, allowing them not only to safeguard their assets against inflation but also to capitalize on the immense growth potential of such an asset in the future.
Investing in deflationary cryptocurrency may prove to be the most forward-thinking decision, especially in an era of global uncertainty and instability in traditional financial markets.
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